Power, cooling and data centers

The bottleneck nobody can buy their way out of

A GPU can be manufactured in months. A gas turbine takes years to deliver, a transmission line longer, and a new nuclear plant longer still. As the buyers’ spending has grown, the binding constraint on new AI capacity has shifted from chips toward power and the equipment that delivers it. The filings show it: buyers sign 20-year power contracts, utilities and generators report data-center demand as their main source of growth, and equipment makers report backlogs measured in years.

This layer is wide. It includes equipment makers (Vertiv for rack power and liquid cooling, Eaton for electrical distribution, GE Vernova for turbines and grid gear, Modine for chillers and cooling, Powell for switchgear, nVent and Hubbell for components), builders (Quanta for transmission and grid connections, EMCOR for electrical and mechanical work inside the buildings), power generators (Constellation, Vistra, Talen, Bloom Energy’s fuel cells) and landlords (Equinix, Digital Realty, Applied Digital). Combined, they earned $229B over their latest four quarters.

Backlog is the story

GE Vernova reports $197B of remaining performance obligations, 4.5× its revenue over the latest four quarters. Quanta reports $41.8B and EMCOR $18.6B. Backlogs this long give unusual visibility: much of the next two or three years’ revenue is already contracted. They also show where pricing power is building, because a supplier with years of orders can choose which new ones to take.

Growth is fastest where the product is newest or scarcest. Over their latest four quarters Applied Digital grew +559%, Bloom Energy grew +112%, Talen grew +109% and nVent grew +46%. Bloom Energy’s fuel cells and the nuclear generators sell something AI data centers increasingly want: power that doesn’t wait for a grid connection, or carbon-free power sold under long contracts.

Long contracts with the buyers

The generators’ filings show the buyers locking in supply for decades. Constellation reports that the restart of a nuclear plant is supported by a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft. Vistra reports 20-year agreements to supply Meta with 2,609 megawatts of nuclear power and capacity. Contracts like these let generators finance new or restarted capacity on the strength of a creditworthy buyer, and they turn a commodity business, selling power at market prices, into something closer to a utility with long-term contracted revenue.

The data-center landlords sit between the two. Equinix spent $5.8B on capex over its latest four quarters against $10.1B of revenue, and Applied Digital $3.7B against $597M. Landlords take construction and leasing risk in exchange for long leases with the largest tenants in the world; their returns depend on building at a cost those leases can cover.

The nuclear start-ups: options, not earnings

Small modular reactors are among the most popular AI-power stories with individual investors, so it is worth being clear about what the filings show. Oklo has no revenue yet. Over its latest four quarters it reported an operating loss of $218M and spent $159M on capital projects, and it held $1.6B of cash and short-term investments at June 30, 2026. NuScale, whose reactor design has US regulatory approval, reported $11M of revenue and an operating loss of $733M over the same span.

These companies can’t be analyzed like the rest of the layer, because there are no earnings or margins to compare. Their value rests on getting reactors licensed, built and delivered on budget, years from now, and on customers signing binding contracts rather than announcing intentions. That is why we list them on this page but leave them out of the layer’s totals and growth rankings. The things to read in their filings are cash on hand against the rate it is being spent, and any firm purchase agreements disclosed as commitments.

Margins: steady rather than spectacular

The layer’s gross margin moved from 25% to 27% over two years, and it kept 31% of its extra revenue as gross profit. That is a far smaller share than chips or memory, because much of the work is construction and manufacturing with real labor and materials costs. But the margins are rising and the visibility is long, a different kind of quality from the toll booths.

The risk in this layer is timing rather than demand. Equipment and generation ordered today for data centers due in 2028 or later is a commitment made on today’s forecasts. If the buyers slowed their plans, the order books would shrink before revenue did, and the long backlogs that look like safety now would be renegotiated. Watch new orders, not just backlog.

The companies, side by side

Latest four reported quarters for US filers; latest fiscal year for 20-F filers (marked). Underlined names have their own company page; the others link to the company’s filings on SEC EDGAR. Margins are left blank where a company doesn’t report gross profit or cost of revenue.

Where the money comes from and goes

This layer is paid by AI clouds. Its own costs are mostly labor, materials, fuel and its own capital spending, outside the stack. For the dollar amounts and who keeps them, see following the money.

Financing links that involve this layer

Quoted from the filings. Numbers match the money-loop map.

• 24Microsoft → ConstellationPower contract

  20-year PPA for a restarted nuclear plant

  “The restart is supported by a 20-year PPA with Microsoft to purchase the output generated from the renewed plant.”

  Constellation 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026, filed August 6, 2026

• 25Meta → VistraPower contract

  2,609 MW of nuclear power under 20-year PPAs

  “In January 2026, Vistra announced it had entered into 20-year PPAs with Meta, pursuant to which the Company has agreed to supply Meta with a total of 2,609 MW of carbon-free power and capacity from the Company's PJM nuclear power plants as follows: 1,268 MW of energy and capacity from Perry and 908 MW of energy and capacity from Davis-Besse; and 213 MW of uprate energy and capacity from Perry, 80 MW of uprate energy and capacity from Davis-Besse, and 140 MW of uprate energy and capacity from Beaver Valley.”

  Vistra 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026, filed August 10, 2026

What to watch in the next filings

• Orders and backlog at GE Vernova, Quanta, Vertiv and EMCOR: new orders signal demand before revenue does.
• New long-term power purchase agreements between generators and the buyers.
• Gross margins at the equipment makers: rising margins on long backlogs mean pricing power is building.
• Data-center landlords’ capex against signed leases.
• Interconnection queues and grid-connection timelines, which set how fast new capacity can switch on.