Constellation in the AI stack

The business and what the filings show

Constellation runs the largest fleet of nuclear plants in the United States and sells power under long-term contracts, increasingly to data-center operators. Over its latest four quarters it reported $24.8B of revenue, +20%, at a 19% operating margin.

Its filings report that the restart of a nuclear plant is supported by a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft, an example of the buyers locking in carbon-free power for decades. Contracts like that turn a commodity business into something closer to one with long-term contracted revenue.

For AI investors, Constellation is a bet on power becoming the build-out’s binding constraint. Its earnings still depend on power prices and plant operations, so the share of output under long-term contracts is the number to follow.

How AI shows up in the numbers

AI shows up at Constellation as demand for long-term contracts for carbon-free power from data-center operators, which lets it restart or uprate plants on the strength of a creditworthy buyer. Most of its revenue still comes from selling power in wholesale and retail markets, so contracted data-center deals are the part to follow. Each one also tells you what large buyers are willing to pay for firm, carbon-free supply over decades. That price is a useful benchmark for the whole power layer.

For scale, Constellation’s revenue over the latest four quarters equals 4% of the $566B the five largest buyers spent on capital projects over their latest four quarters. Their capex rose +81% on the year before, while Constellation’s revenue grew +20%: slower than the spending, so it is capturing a smaller share of each new capex dollar, or more of its business sits outside the build-out.

How it talks about AI

In its latest earnings release, furnished to the SEC on August 6, 2026, Constellation mentioned AI 0 times in 1,538 words of narrative text, about 0.0 mentions per 1,000 words. Of its 0 sentences about AI, 0 included a number: a revenue figure, a growth rate, a customer count or another measurable result. Across the 8 releases we read, back to November 4, 2024, AI mentions per 1,000 words went from 1.0 to 0.0.

Specific claims are easier to check against the numbers than general enthusiasm, which is why the share of AI sentences that carry a figure is worth watching alongside how often AI is mentioned. The sentences below are quoted from the release as published, after removing safe-harbor text and company boilerplate.

Source: earnings release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), August 6, 2026.

The trend in the numbers

Since the start of 2023, Constellation’s largest quarter by revenue was Q1 2026 at $7.5B. The latest quarter was below that peak.

Quarter by quarter, Constellation’s revenue grew +19% in Q3 2025, +26% in Q4 2025, +24% in Q1 2026, +13% in Q2 2026 on the same quarter a year earlier. Growth has been slowing, though from a high base.

Operating margin moved from 18% to 10% over the same span. Over the latest four quarters it turned 17% of its revenue into operating cash flow and spent 16% of revenue on capital projects, against 14% a year earlier.

Where it sits in the stack

Constellation sits in the power, cooling and data centers layer of the AI stack. It is paid by the AI clouds layer.

Among the 16 companies in this layer on our map, it ranks number 4 by revenue and number 9 of 16 by revenue growth. The full layer analysis is on the power & DCs page.

Latest four quarters for 10-Q filers; latest fiscal year for 20-F filers. Companies under $100 million of revenue are left out.

Against the 16 US-listed companies in its layer, Constellation grew +20% over the latest year versus +24% for the layer combined, and converted 1% of revenue into free cash flow versus 12% for the layer. It is growing roughly in line with its layer.

What has to go right, and what could go wrong

What has to go right. Data-center buyers have to keep signing long-term contracts for carbon-free power at prices that justify restarting and uprating nuclear plants.

What could go wrong. Earnings still depend on wholesale power prices and on plant operations, and the regulatory path for connecting large loads to existing plants remains a source of uncertainty.

These describe the conditions the business depends on, as the filings show them. They are not a view on the stock.

Through the lens of Investing in AI

Rob May’s book offers six mental models for telling AI moats from traps. The one most useful for Constellation’s layer is “AI changes markets and corporate strategy”: When creation gets cheap, choke points move. Like the internet shifting newspaper profits to discovery, AI pushes moats toward coordination and control points. The winners sit at the new choke point, not the best AI story.

The question it asks of any company is: What becomes scarce in this value chain as AI makes the work abundant? Applied to Constellation, the filings on this page are the place to start: the margin trend shows whether it holds scarce value or passes it through, the customer and financing disclosures show who it depends on, and the commitments show what it has promised before the revenue arrives.

Customers and concentration

US companies must disclose any customer that accounts for 10% or more of revenue, and foreign filers usually describe their largest customers. Concentration matters because a company’s growth is only as durable as the handful of buyers behind it, and in the AI stack those buyers are often the same few companies.

• We have not found a customer-concentration statement in Constellation’s latest filings that our reader can quote cleanly; see its filings on SEC EDGAR.

Financing links

Investments, guarantees, purchase commitments, warrants and power contracts between Constellation and other companies, each quoted from the filing that discloses it. Numbers match the money-loop map.

• 24Microsoft → ConstellationPower contract

  20-year PPA for a restarted nuclear plant

  “The restart is supported by a 20-year PPA with Microsoft to purchase the output generated from the renewed plant.”

  Constellation 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026, filed August 6, 2026

Commitments and backlog

• Backlog. Constellation reports $11.9B of remaining performance obligations, 0.5 times its revenue over the latest four quarters: contracted revenue not yet earned.

What to watch

Constellation’s next quarterly report will cover the quarter ending around September 29, 2026. Large companies must file a 10-Q within 40 days of a quarter’s end and a 10-K within 60 days of the fiscal year’s end, so the new figures should arrive by about November 28, 2026 at the latest. This page, the layer pages and the next quarterly report all update from that filing.

• New long-term contracts with data-center buyers, which turn commodity power into contracted revenue.
• Plant restarts and uprates, the new capacity those contracts support.
• Power prices in its markets, which still drive most of its earnings.
• Its place in the next quarterly AI Stack Report, which updates every company on the map from the new filings.

Figures from Constellation’s SEC filings, latest period ended June 30, 2026. Other companies: all company pages.